Abstract Fundamental to reasoning about actions and beliefs is the projection problem: to decide what is believed after a sequence of actions is performed. Progression is one widely applied technique to solve this problem. In this paper we propose a novel framework for computing progression in the epistemic situation calculus. In particular, we model an agent’s preferential belief structure using conditional statements and provide a technique for updating these conditional statements as actions are performed and sensing information is received. Moreover, we show, by using the concepts of natural revision and only-believing, that the progression of a conditional knowledge base can be represented by only-believing the revised set of conditional statements. These results lay the foundations for feasible belief progression due to the uniquemodel property of only-believing.