Abstract 

Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability. This variability can arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as neural non-stationarity. To better understand the nature of co-variability in neural circuits and their impact on cortical information processing, we introduce a hierarchical dynamics model that is able to capture both slow inter-trial modulations in firing rates as well as neural population dynamics. We derive a Bayesian Laplace propagation algorithm for joint inference of parameters and population states. On neural population recordings from primary visual cortex, we demonstrate that our model provides a better account of the structure of neural firing than stationary dynamics models.