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Predicting accurate probabilities with a ranking loss

2020-02-28 | |  86 |   65 |   0

Abstract

In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict th probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric technique offers both good ranking and regression performance, and models a richer set of probability distributions than statistical workhorses such as logistic regression. We provide experimental results that show the effectiveness of this technique on real-world applications of probability prediction.

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