RobustTrend: A Huber Loss with a Combined First and Second Order Difference
Regularization for Time Series Trend Filtering
Abstract
Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial
step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal,
time series can contain not only outliers but also
abrupt trend changes in real-world scenarios. To
deal with these challenges, we propose a robust
trend filtering algorithm based on robust statistics
and sparse learning. Specifically, we adopt the Huber loss to suppress outliers, and utilize a combination of the first order and second order difference
on the trend component as regularization to capture both slow and abrupt trend changes. Furthermore, an efficient method is designed to solve the
proposed robust trend filtering based on majorization minimization (MM) and alternative direction
method of multipliers (ADMM). We compared our
proposed robust trend filter with other nine stateof-the-art trend filtering algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The experiments
demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing methods