Answering Binary Causal Questions Through Large-Scale Text Mining:An Evaluation Using Cause-Effect Pairs from Human Experts
Abstract
In this paper, we study the problem of answering
questions of type “Could X cause Y?” where X
and Y are general phrases without any constraints.
Answering such questions will assist with various
decision support tasks such as verifying and extending presumed causal associations used for decision making. Our goal is to analyze the ability of an AI agent built using state-of-the-art unsupervised methods in answering causal questions
derived from collections of cause-effect pairs from
human experts. We focus only on unsupervised and
weakly supervised methods due to the difficulty of
creating a large enough training set with a reasonable quality and coverage. The methods we examine rely on a large corpus of text derived from news
articles, and include methods ranging from largescale application of classic NLP techniques and statistical analysis to the use of neural network based
phrase embeddings and state-of-the-art neural language models