Abstract
By seeking the narrowest prediction intervals (PIs)
that satisfy the specified coverage probability requirements, the recently proposed quality-based PI
learning principle can extract high-quality PIs that
better summarize the predictive certainty in regression tasks, and has been widely applied to solve
many practical problems. Currently, the stateof-the-art quality-based PI estimation methods are
based on deep neural networks or linear models. In
this paper, we propose Highest Density Interval Regression Forest (HDI-Forest), a novel quality-based
PI estimation method that is instead based on Random Forest. HDI-Forest does not require additional
model training, and directly reuses the trees learned
in a standard Random Forest model. By utilizing the special properties of Random Forest, HDIForest could efficiently and more directly optimize
the PI quality metrics. Extensive experiments on
benchmark datasets show that HDI-Forest signifi-
cantly outperforms previous approaches, reducing
the average PI width by over 20% while achieving
the same or better coverage probability