资源论文Classification of Emerging Extreme Event Tracks in Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Physical Systems Using Dynamic Network Structures: Application to Hurricane Track Prediction

Classification of Emerging Extreme Event Tracks in Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Physical Systems Using Dynamic Network Structures: Application to Hurricane Track Prediction

2019-11-12 | |  55 |   44 |   0

Abstract Understanding extreme events, such as hurricanes or forest ?res, is of paramount importance because of their adverse impacts on human beings. Such events often propagate in space and time. Predicting—even a few days in advance—what locations will get affected by the event tracks could bene?t our society in many ways. Arguably, simulations from ?rst principles, where underlying physics-based models are described by a system of equations, provide least reliable predictions for variables characterizing the dynamics of these extreme events. Data-driven model building has been recently emerging as a complementary approach that could learn the relationships between historically observed or simulated multiple, spatio-temporal ancillary variables and the dynamic behavior of extreme events of interest. While promising, the methodology for predictive learning from such complex data is still in its infancy. In this paper, we propose a dynamic networks-based methodology for in-advance prediction of the dynamic tracks of emerging extreme events. By associating a network model of the system with the known tracks, our method is capable of learning the recurrent network motifs that could be used as discriminatory signatures for the event’s behavioral class. When applied to classifying the behavior of the hurricane tracks at their early formation stages in Western Africa region, our method is able to predict whether hurricane tracks will hit the land of the North Atlantic region at least 10-15 days lead lag time in advance with more than 90% accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. To the best of our knowledge, no comparable methodology exists for solving this problem using data-driven models.

上一篇:A General MCMC Method for Bayesian Inference in Logic-Based Probabilistic Modeling

下一篇:Consistency Measures for Feature Selection:

用户评价
全部评价

热门资源

  • Learning to learn...

    The move from hand-designed features to learned...

  • A Mathematical Mo...

    Direct democracy, where each voter casts one vo...

  • Stratified Strate...

    In this paper we introduce Stratified Strategy ...

  • Rating-Boosted La...

    The performance of a recommendation system reli...

  • Hierarchical Task...

    We extend hierarchical task network planning wi...