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Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans

2019-11-19 | |  103 |   67 |   0
Abstract Given a hierarchical plan (or schedule) with uncertain task times, we may need to determine the probability that a given plan will satisfy a given deadline. This problem is shown to be NPhard for series-parallel hierarchies. We provide a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for it. Computing the expected makespan of an hierarchical plan is also shown to be NP-hard. We examine the approximation bounds empirically and demonstrate where our scheme is superior to sampling and to exact computation.

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